Wednesday, April 17

The red wave in Latin America

After much talk about the blue wave in the U.S. with the prospect of the Democratic Party achieving an overwhelming victory in the U.S. Congress, which actually did not occur, we began to see the “red wave” in Latin America, this yes with real possibility of realizing.

In addition to dictatorships, such as Venezuela, which follows with a central government under Maduro, as well as Cuba and Nicaragua, we had Argentina, which was first elected a government with popular votes.

Bolivia returned to the domain of Evo Morales and the “cocaleiros”  through  Lucho Arce.

Ecuador, after the end of the government of Rafael Correi, multi-incriminated by corruption, the left, has a chance to return to power,  by his pupil Andrés Arauz, who if well did not leadthe election in the first round, poucthe chance there will be for the conservative, Guilherme Lasso to achieve victory in the second round, because the third candidate, Yaku Péres, who represents the indigenous gallows will not add to it. With this on April 11 we should have another country with the left in power.

Mexico has also been on the left since the last elections.

Peru and Colombia, are also on the left  with the most chance of success,in the coming

As there is no relationship between promises and reality, populism will continue to occupy the political space, whether on the  left or right, in some cases.

The tendency is the victory of, as we call in Brazil, “pole” when the main leader is forbidden to apply or prefers to stay off camera, so that their maldeed so that their maldeed are brought to light.

In Chile, after the approval of the constituent,we have notonly a new constitution that could lead the country toungovernability, as the movement of exit from the country’s capital has already begun.

In Brazil, the only country with 12 presidents in office, one elected and 11 who command, the economy deteriorates at extraordinary speed,   public debt reaches catastrophic numbers, inflation is returning and prohibition of coordinated action and centralized in the fight against Covid, leads the country to a trauma with no solution in sight.

Its external credibility is squeaking, the Central Bank reverses billions of dollars to try to avoid an even greater devaluation of thereal,  against the U.S. currency, which would further worsen the trend of rising inflation and private debt.

There are more forecasts “pessimists and that without intervention the dollar would reach, or reach R$8.00 per dollar.

Everything suggests that we will have ashort-term need for  anincrease in the basic interest rate of SELIC,  raising it to 2.5%, immediately, because the figures are demanding, such as the IGP-M with a 1.92% increase in the first forecast of February.

With a Congress lacking in public spirit, the situation deteriorates. Reminds me of the phrase of adeputy,  when being urged to talk about parliamentarians being protecting themselves against the interests of the nation and its  population:  “you can not read? This “house is the Chamber of Deputies”, is not home of the population or Brazil… and cleared the question, crystal clear, ended the conversation.

Let’s see what we get in 2022.

Either way, the  “red wave” wins the scenario, which is leading to more investors choosing to put their resources in the U.S., much to the sadness of the AL countries   so lacking in investment resources.

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